The Reality

Previously, on one of my other blogs, I asserted that Bush is to the GOP what Carter was to the Dems and that the Dems simply don’t know who our new Reagan will be.

Whoa. I apologize to President Carter.

I’m so stupid. I’m sorry.
That doesn’t make any damn sense.

Maybe I was thinking Oil Crisis… I dunno, I’m back from the good long cry I had in my steaming shower. I’ve been pulling slips of paper from the Memory Hole to hit upon this:

John Kerry was another Al Smith.
The Dems don’t know who our new FDR will be.

Go with me here.

In 1928 Smith lost to Hoover who, for all intents and purposes was running for Coolidge’s second term – Coolidge “chose not to run.” He was a dolt. He was Shrub had 9/11 never happened.

Al Smith, a Northerner from New York (also Catholic) was labeled too liberal.

• Al Smith rejected the heavy-handed GOP foreign policy, specifically the invasion and colonization of the Philippines.
• He promised to reform Government to avoid the cronyism, corruption and scandals he tied to the GOP.
• He supported collective bargaining and Unions for American workers.

Hoover called for “rugged individualism.” Hoover called the Democrats socialists and preached the virtues of free markets and private enterprise. He above all else called for America to “stay the course.” He said Smith wanted to surrender our freedom to the Spaniards. He made fun of the Northerner.

In a nutshell, the nation did not feel a compelling need to make a change in leadership in 1928. The fact that Smith was a Catholic, a “wet,” a machine politician and sounded strange when he spoke made the decision of many voters an easy one.

In 1928, Hoover won and took the wheel.
In 1928 Congressional elections, Hoover and the Conservative Republicans widened their majority in Congress using Smith to illustrate a social wedge issue (much like the Gay Marriage of 2004) of upholding the Volstead Act: further prohibition of alcohol.

Results:

• In the House, GOP increased their majority to 62% of the seats.
• In the senate, GOP increased their majority by 8.

In the 1930 Midterms, Hoover’s popularity was extremely low, what with the sinking economy, foreign investment in the dollar getting yanked, the imperialistic mishandling of the invasion of the Philippines, rising inflation and unemployment as well as growning concerns about an impending economic collapse: Americans rejected Republican incumbents.

Results:
In the House, the Dems gained an amazing 52 seats.
In the Senate, the Dems pulled to within one of a majority.

Though Republicans were still in control, it was only by the skin of their teeth. For the lame-duck last two years of his Presidency, Hoover was still at the wheel and proceded to wrap the country around a tree.

[Which brings us now to the Presidential Election of 2008]
In 1932, Presidential Nominee FDR, also from New York, said essentially: ‘Do over.’ FDR said that what the Democrats campaigned on in 1928 might have saved the Nation from the Depression. ‘America can’t miss this opportunity again.’ ‘We have to fix this.’ ‘To stay the course is to commit suicide.’ ‘Don’t fear change.’ ‘I have polio.’ etc.

• In 1932, FDR called for reform of financial markets and regulation, a balanced budget, aid for farmers and the unemployed.
• FDR pledged to help the “forgotten man at the bottom of the economic pyramid.”

On the other side of the aisle was Hoover who, unable to say “Stay the Course” again with a straight face, was forced to come up with a few ideas:

• In 1932, the GOP called for sharp cutbacks in Federal expenditures and curbs on immigration.
• Socially they doggedly stuck with the 18th Amendment, even though the populace had progressed enough to sour on the prohibition.

Hoover, with his fingers in his ears, shaking his head declared that only free enterprise would restore prosperity.
FDR shot back that free enterprise has brought us to crisis and collapse.
And FDR didn’t blink when he said it. America solemnly nodded.

Results:

• In the Senate, the GOP lost 12 seats in the Senate and Control of the Chamber.
• In the House, the GOP lost over 100 seats and was utterly powerless.
• FDR became President.
  

The trend continued, at its height of power in 1936, FDR’s Democrats controlled 77% of the House and 82% of the Senate.

Therefore, in the eight years after John Kerry Al Smith’s unfortunate loss:

• In the House, the Dems went from minority party of 36% to a majority of 76%. A gain of +40%
• The Democratic Party in the Senate went from a minority of 40% to majority of 65%. A gain of +25%.

I believe in 2006, Dems will make great gains, but the GOP will still hold on to control. But shit is going to get worse. As it did between the 1930 midterms to the ’32 Presidential. Which leads us to our next Presidential. We’ll be in the middle of a deep, deep recession stemming from the housing bubble bursting. As long as the GOP doesn’t nominate an avowed Bush-basher, the last two years of the Bush Presidency will either be war with Iran (end of world) or a recession, either way the discussion those 24 months will be how far down on the list of ‘Worst President Ever’ does Shrub belong – worse than Harding, Hoover, Polk?

This President will only grow more toxic if he lives and in 2008 The Restored United States’ next New Deal will arrive, The Next Deal will throw Democrats back into the majority. The candidate who wins will have to run on an anti-oligarch, anti-poverty, pro-reform platform. Pulling out of the recession will be difficult but if we can do it like Clinton did in ’93, then 2012 will be awesome. It will be the second time Conservativism collapsed in a century. Consider.

Talk about the longview. In 2012, I also believe future Bruins captain Carl Corazzini will win Stanley Cup MVP after netting a hat-trick to finish off the Devils in six games. Hell, I believe lotsa things about the future. Some of them good.

Who will this future President be? Judging from history, it won’t be a centrist like Hillary despite what the campaign button might suggest (Clinton again). No, it will instead be a unencumbered genuinely liberal reformer. Ben Affleck.

[09-27-05 - Oh my god, I was kidding.]